Bitcoin Crawls to Rp1.3 Billion Ahead of The Fed Decision: Accumulation Signal or Trap?
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- Harga Bitcoin naik hampir 2% ke US$81.000 pada Rabu pagi waktu Asia, memulihkan penurunan akhir pekan ke level US$79.000.
- Galaxy Research menilai pasar bearish berakhir Juni dan Bitcoin kini di fase akumulasi, didukung kenaikan di atas moving average 50 minggu.
- Pelaku pasar menanti pidato Gubernur The Fed Kevin Warsh untuk petunjuk kenaikan suku bunga Desember yang bisa menekan aset berisiko.
Bitcoin broke back above the US$81,000 level in Wednesday morning Asian trading, up nearly 2% from its weekend position that briefly touched US$79,000. The move came hours before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, a moment that has long set the direction for risk assets.
Bitcoin's rise is not an isolated phenomenon. Zcash (ZEC) led the gains with an 8% jump to around US$1,320, reversing Monday's sell-off. Hyperliquid (HYPE) added nearly 5% to US$81, while XRP and Dogecoin each rose about 3%. Ether sat above US$2,350 after gaining 2%, and Solana posted a similar rise to US$102. BNB edged up 1%, while TRX lagged with a gain below 1%.
Behind those numbers, signals from financial institutions are starting to shift. Galaxy Research, in a note to investors, asserted that Bitcoin's accumulation period has begun. The firm's head of research, Alex Thorn, said the bear market most likely ended in June, when Bitcoin was still below US$58,000. According to him, Bitcoin's return above its 50-week moving average is an important indicator that the long-term trend is reversing.
“We believe the bear market ended in June and Bitcoin is now in an accumulation phase that has always preceded every previous rally,” Thorn said in the Galaxy research note.
Thorn also highlighted reduced selling pressure and rising US government debt as supporting factors. However, he acknowledged that the prediction is fairly bold given that Bitcoin has struggled to hold above US$80,000 over the past few weeks.
The market's main focus is now on the press conference of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will provide clues on a possible rate hike in December. A rate hike would make borrowing more expensive and tend to pull funds out of risk assets such as crypto. Conversely, if Warsh signals a dovish stance, the room for Bitcoin to extend its rally could open wider.
For Indonesian investors, this dynamic has direct implications. The domestic crypto market, which has recently shown a high correlation with global moves, will respond to any shift in Fed sentiment. The rupiah exchange rate is also an additional variable: a weaker rupiah can keep Bitcoin's price in local currency high even if the dollar price falls. Retail investors in the country need to watch the timing of accumulation, especially if signals from global institutions like Galaxy actually materialize.
It is worth noting that Galaxy's accumulation narrative is not without risk. Bitcoin remains below its all-time high, and its volatility stays high. The claim that the bear market ended in June has not been fully confirmed by broader on-chain data. If the Fed surprises the market with a rate hike, the accumulation scenario could be delayed and the US$80,000 level tested again.
Going forward, attention will focus on two things: whether Bitcoin can hold above US$80,000 after the Fed announcement, and whether altcoins such as ZEC and HYPE can sustain their momentum. The answers to both will determine whether the accumulation phase Galaxy refers to has truly begun, or whether it is instead a trap for investors who enter too early.
