Wall Street Panics on Friday, VIX Jumps 21.5% — Bitcoin Signals and Historical Data Point to a Monday Cooldown
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- Indeks VIX melesat 21,5% ke 19,99 pada Jumat, kenaikan harian terbesar sejak Juni, dipicu kekhawatiran AI dan geopolitik.
- Data historis menunjukkan lonjakan VIX di atas 20% pada Jumat cenderung berbalik turun pada Senin berikutnya, dengan penurunan median 4,5%.
- Bitcoin bertahan di atas US$80.000 dan indeks volatilitas BVIV justru turun, menandakan pasar kripto tidak ikut panik.
The VIX index, Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped 21.5% to 19.99 on Friday (18/10) — the largest daily gain since June 5 — after the S&P 500 slipped 1.09% on concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and escalating geopolitics. Yet history and bitcoin's weekend moves signal that the panic may not carry into Monday's session.
The VIX measures expected S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days, calculated from options prices. When investors get nervous, they buy hedging options, pushing the index higher. Options traders are betting the VIX will stay elevated into November: 9,200 call contracts with a 20 strike expiring November 18 were bought for US$1.7 million, followed by 12,500 call contracts with a 23 strike for US$1.1 million. The bet is that the VIX closes above 23 in the third week of November.
The sentiment aligns with macro developments. AI stocks were under pressure all week, while the cost of default insurance for AI-related companies hit a record. Geopolitics also heated up oil prices: on Saturday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The Russia-Ukraine front has also escalated.
Data analysis shows a similar pattern: of the 32 Friday VIX spikes of ≥20% since 1990, the index fell on 25 of the following Mondays. Investors tend to digest the panic over the weekend and markets return to normal. Seasonality reinforces this: the VIX weakened in November in 25 of the past 36 years, and from the end of October to the end of the year it fell in 22 of 36 years.
Bitcoin, the only macro asset trading over the weekend, showed no panic. Its price held above US$80,000, still within its recent fluctuating range. Volmex BVIV, the bitcoin volatility index, actually fell 1% below 40% and has barely moved since. On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the odds of an AI bubble bursting this year are priced at just 9%.
“The bitcoin market this year has been more active over weekends, especially Sundays, as geopolitics has heated up since early March. That activity underscores bitcoin's role as an always-open macro asset: when traditional markets are closed, traders use bitcoin to express their early views on global risk appetite,” according to CoinDesk's analysis.
Even so, there is no guarantee Monday will be stable. In 7 of the 32 cases, the VIX instead kept surging sharply on Monday, including in August 2015, February 2018, and August 2024. In level terms, the VIX is still below 20 — a threshold exceeded on more than a third of days since 1990 — so there is still room to rise if the panic continues.
For Indonesian investors, this dynamic is relevant because a high VIX usually narrows global risk appetite, which can weigh on capital flows to emerging markets, including the IHSG and the rupiah. However, if the historical pattern repeats, that pressure is short-term. The key lies in the opening of Asian markets on Monday morning: whether bitcoin stays calm above US$80,000, or gets dragged into a broader wave of risk aversion.
