US Treasury Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Signaling Further Rate Hikes
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- Imbal hasil obligasi AS tenor 10 tahun menembus 5,058%, level tertinggi sejak Juli 2007, dipicu data ekonomi yang panas.
- Peluang kenaikan suku bunga Fed pada Oktober melonjak menjadi 64%, sementara sebulan lalu masih di bawah 10%.
- Rupiah dan pasar obligasi Indonesia berpotensi tertekan jika The Fed kembali menaikkan suku bunga, memaksa BI menjaga daya tarik imbal hasil domestik.
Yields on US government bonds surged to a 19-year high on Wednesday (23/9/2026) local time, after the release of services and manufacturing data that far exceeded expectations sparked market fears that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in the near term.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note—the global benchmark for long-term borrowing costs—jumped 7 basis points to 5.058%, a level last seen in July 2007. The 2-year yield rose 8 basis points to 4.464%, while the 30-year yield added more than 4 basis points to 5.347%. The yield increases came as bond prices moved in the opposite direction.
The main trigger was the S&P Global services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which jumped to 58.7 in September, the highest in nearly five years, from 56.5 in August. The manufacturing PMI also climbed to 56.7, a level not seen in more than four years. "US business activity continues to boom," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, in a statement. He added that the surge was the largest since early 2015, outside the post-Covid-19 lockdown demand spike.
However, behind that expansion, input cost pressures also rose sharply. Williamson noted that input costs in September rose at the fastest pace in four years, driven by a surge in fuel and transport prices alongside rising oil prices. The conditions reinforced the narrative that inflation is not yet fully under control.
Market sentiment worsened further after Fed Governor Michael Barr said that further interest rate increases were likely needed because "the risks to achieving our inflation target have increased." The Fed itself raised its benchmark rate last week in response to persistently high energy prices that have kept inflation elevated.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October jumped to 64% on Wednesday, from 55% on Tuesday, and just under 10% a month earlier. The expectations reflect a rapid shift in market participants' views on the direction of the Fed's policy.
For Indonesia, the surge in US yields is a warning signal. The narrowing yield gap between US Treasuries and Indonesian government securities (SBN) could trigger capital outflows from the domestic financial market, pressuring the rupiah exchange rate and in turn narrowing Bank Indonesia's room to cut interest rates. The government also faces the risk of higher costs for new debt, both in global and domestic markets, which could weigh on the budget.
In recent weeks, foreign investors have recorded net selling in the SBN market, although the pressure has not been as severe as during the 2013 taper tantrum. Bank Indonesia is expected to continue intervening in the market to maintain rupiah stability, while keeping its benchmark rate competitive to preserve attractive yields.
Looking ahead, the market's focus is on US inflation data and the Fed's next meeting in November. If economic data continue to show resilience, the odds of a December rate hike will grow, which could prolong pressure on emerging market assets, including Indonesia's. The question is how long the domestic bond market can withstand the shock before BI is forced to raise rates to preserve the appeal of its yields?
