Prabowo Claims Rice Stock Safe for 10 Months, El Nino Anticipation Strengthened

President Prabowo Subianto has assured that national rice availability is secure for the next ten months, while outlining a series of anticipatory measures to face potential drought caused by the El Nino phenomenon. The statement came amid global concerns over disruptions to food supply chains and fluctuations in commodity prices.

According to Prabowo, the government has prepared water infrastructure such as retention basins, reservoirs, and dams in various regions to irrigate farmland. In addition, a pumping program has been rolled out in production centers to ensure water supply remains available during prolonged dry seasons. The move is seen as a swift response to warnings from international meteorological agencies projecting that this year's El Nino could disrupt harvests in Southeast Asia.

For Indonesia, this statement is not merely a supply guarantee but also a political signal that the government is paying serious attention to food security. The agricultural sector absorbs around 28% of the national workforce, and rice is a strategic commodity whose price heavily influences inflation. If El Nino does strike, the impact could be felt in rising prices at traditional markets and the burden on low-income households.

Several economists have warned that the claim of safe stocks needs to be tested against real data on the ground. "The government must be transparent about the position of rice reserves at Bulog and ensure smooth distribution to remote areas," said a food analyst from an independent research institute, as quoted from a public discussion this week. He added that pumping is indeed a short-term solution, but without sustainable irrigation improvements, dependence on rain remains high.

"We have prepared retention basins, reservoirs, and dams. Pumping is also underway in agricultural centers," said President Prabowo Subianto on the Power Lunch program on CNBC Indonesia, Wednesday (16/9/2026).

On the other hand, the Ministry of Agriculture recorded that milled dry grain production in the first semester of 2026 rose slightly compared with the same period last year. However, harvested area could shrink if rainfall is below normal. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has also warned that El Nino could suppress rice production in Asia, which supplies nearly 90% of the world's rice.

The domestic rice market itself has shown signs of price increases in recent weeks. Based on the price panel of the National Food Agency, the price of medium rice in several provinces rose 2-3% from the previous month. Although not yet alarming, this trend is a warning for the government to maintain supply stability, especially ahead of the year-end period, which is usually marked by rising demand.

On the fiscal side, this year's food security budget has been allocated quite substantially, including for water infrastructure development and fertilizer subsidies. However, implementation on the ground is often hampered by bureaucracy and inter-agency coordination. Observers assess that the success of this strategy will depend heavily on how quickly local governments execute programs and ensure there is no budget leakage.

Going forward, the question is not only whether rice stocks are sufficient for ten months, but how Indonesia builds long-term food security that is resilient to climate change. If El Nino arrives stronger than expected, will foreign exchange reserves and the distribution network be able to withstand price shocks? The public awaits real evidence on the ground, not just claims on stage.