CELIOS Says Budget Under Purbaya Was Not Credible, Finance Minister Reshuffle Deemed Insufficient
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- Direktur Ekonomi CELIOS menilai kredibilitas APBN merosot selama Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa menjabat Menkeu, memperkuat alasan pencopotan mendadak pada 14 September 2026.
- Pergantian ke Suahasil Nazara dianggap belum menyentuh akar masalah: kepercayaan pasar dan tata kelola internal Kementerian Keuangan.
- Pemerintah perlu segera memulihkan sinyal fiskal yang meyakinkan, atau biaya utang dan arus modal keluar berpotensi memburuk.
JAKARTA — The removal of Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa from the finance minister's seat on Monday (14/9/2026) was not merely a political rotation. Nailul Huda, Director of Economics at the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), argues the fundamental problem lies in the credibility of the state budget (APBN) managed by Purbaya during his tenure. According to him, the fiscal indicators presented to the public are no longer fully trusted by the market, and that was the main trigger behind President Prabowo Subianto's decision.
The President replaced Purbaya with Suahasil Nazara, who previously served as deputy finance minister. Purbaya learned of his dismissal by phone while attending a meeting with the DPD RI at the Parliamentary Complex in Jakarta. He immediately left the building after receiving the call from the Palace. The public has yet to receive an official explanation for the decision.
Nailul stressed that only the President can confirm whether the decision was made overnight or after months of deliberation. Still, he insisted that a shake-up at the Finance Ministry was necessary. "If we look at the past few months, our economy can be said to be not credible, and the APBN managed by Purbaya was also not credible," he said, as quoted from Kompas TV's YouTube channel on Wednesday (16/9/2026).
Nailul highlighted two dimensions that made Purbaya's position fragile: the performance of APBN management and internal problems at the ministry. He said fiscal data that failed to convince the market had been piling up since early in the year. Several rating agencies, according to him, had already given similar signals earlier. "The performance is bad, the internal situation is bad too, so he indeed had to be replaced," he said.
From a different perspective, Fithra Faisal, an expert staffer at the Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF), assesses that economic growth achievements and the debt rating during Purbaya's era were actually in a good position. However, he acknowledges the President had other considerations that were not entirely economic. In other words, this reshuffle decision carries broader political and institutional dimensions beyond macro numbers.
"Whether it was sudden or not, surely only the President can answer that. But if we look at it, a reshuffle was indeed needed, a replacement was needed." — Nailul Huda, Director of Economics at CELIOS
For market players and investors in Indonesia, this change is an early test. APBN credibility is the main foundation in setting yields on government securities (SBN), foreign investment decisions, and sovereign risk perception. When the market doubts fiscal figures, the government's borrowing costs tend to rise, which in turn squeezes fiscal space for productive spending. Suahasil Nazara, who now leads the ministry, faces the heavy task of restoring that trust.
Suahasil is not a new name in fiscal policy circles. He once served as deputy finance minister alongside Sri Mulyani Indrawati and has a long track record at BKF. However, experience alone is not enough. The market will wait for concrete signals: whether the government remains committed to deficit discipline, what the debt financing strategy is, and how transparently APBN data is presented. Political uncertainty within the Finance Ministry could widen SBN spreads and trigger short-term capital outflows.
On the other hand, this reshuffle also opens room for a broader evaluation of the direction of fiscal policy under the Prabowo administration. If the main goal is to improve credibility, then Suahasil's steps should not stop at internal consolidation. He needs to communicate with the market promptly, explain the APBN position honestly, and ensure government spending programs continue without sacrificing fiscal sustainability. Without that, a change of minister will only be a rotation without fundamental improvement.
The remaining question: can Suahasil restore market confidence in a short time, or will he face the same pressure as his predecessor? The answer will be visible in investors' response to SBN auctions and yield movements in the coming weeks.
