Wall Street Slips: Oil Prices and Bond Yields Surge, a Warning Signal for Global Markets
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- Dow Jones turun 377 poin (0,7%), S&P 500 dan Nasdaq masing-masing melemah 0,5% akibat lonjakan minyak dan yield obligasi.
- Brent menembus US$106 per barel setelah Trump menolak proposal damai Iran, sementara yield US Treasury 10 tahun menembus 5,2%—tertinggi sejak 2007.
- Pasar menanti data inflasi PCE dan laporan pekerjaan AS; bagi Indonesia, tekanan yield global berpotensi memicu arus modal keluar dan pelemahan rupiah.
US stock exchanges started the week under selling pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 377 points, or 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each shed 0.5% in Monday trading (28/9/2026). The main trigger was not corporate earnings, but a surge in crude oil prices and US government bond yields, which once again broke through their highest levels in recent years.
Brent crude jumped more than 2% to US$106.79 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose about 2% to US$94.40. The increase came after US President Donald Trump rejected ceasefire terms proposed by Iran. According to a The Wall Street Journal report citing US officials, Trump is even expected to continue strikes on Iran after the midterm elections in November. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital shipping lane for global oil supplies—are back in the market spotlight.
In the bond market, the 10-year US Treasury yield traded above 5.2%, while the 30-year bond yield broke through 5.5%. Both are around multi-year highs. The rise in yields reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will still raise interest rates to curb stubborn inflation, mainly due to high energy prices.
Among technology stocks, the pressure was broad-based. Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology each fell about 3% and 2%. Amazon weakened 1%, Microsoft fell 2%, and Meta Platforms shed nearly 4%—reversing last week's 13% rally driven by the launch of the AI agent "Muse". Nvidia, however, was the exception. Its shares jumped more than 3% after the company announced an additional US$150 billion buyback plan, bringing its total share repurchase program to US$235 billion.
"The rapid rise in 2-year government bond yields around the world signals that major central banks need to raise policy interest rates further in response to the inflation impact of oil prices that remain high due to the renewed escalation of war in the Middle East," wrote Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, in his note.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, believes bond yields will remain high even if the Iran war ends and oil prices fall. "There is an imbalance between long-term demand and long-term bond supply. I'm willing to bet the 10-year yield will stay around 5%. We will not go back to 4%, 4.5%, or 4.25%," he said in an interview with CNBC.
Asia-Pacific markets moved mixed. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed down 0.73% at 65,877.62, while South Korea's Kospi plunged 2.70% to 6,889.74. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.63%, but mainland China's CSI 300 fell 2.22% to 4,340.76. China's weakness was also triggered by August industrial profit data that grew only 4.2% year-on-year—slowing from 17.6% in the January-July period.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 opened up slightly by 0.2%, supported by the automotive and retail sectors. UK homebuilder shares surged after the Labour government announced a new scheme for first-time buyers: Taylor Wimpey soared 20%, Persimmon 16%, and Barratt Redrow 14%.
Indonesian Context
For Indonesian investors, the surge in US Treasury yields is an alarm. When US bonds offer yields above 5%, the appeal of emerging-market assets such as Indonesia's can be eroded. The risk of capital outflows from the government bond (SBN) market and domestic stocks increases, which in turn can pressure the rupiah exchange rate. High oil prices also worsen the oil and gas trade balance deficit and add to the energy subsidy burden if the government does not adjust fuel prices.
On the other hand, domestic coal and energy issuers could benefit from rising oil and commodity prices. However, the aviation and transportation sectors face higher fuel costs, as already seen in United Airlines and American Airlines shares, which fell more than 2% in the US.
This week, market attention will focus on the release of the PCE price index—The Fed's preferred inflation measure—on Wednesday, manufacturing data on Thursday, and the September employment report on Friday. If inflation data runs hot again, expectations of a Fed rate hike will strengthen further, increasing pressure on global bond markets and risk assets, including in Indonesia. Conversely, if data softens, the market may get room to breathe. The question is, have Indonesian investors anticipated the worst-case scenario of this new normal of high interest rates?
