$18B in Crypto Options Expire, Market Bets on Bitcoin Gains

The crypto derivatives market is bracing for one of the biggest events of the year: the quarterly expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts on Friday (9/25) at 08:00 UTC. The total value reaches about $18 billion, made up of $15.9 billion in Bitcoin options and $2.1 billion in Ethereum options. That figure is equivalent to more than Rp260 trillion, making it a crucial moment that could shake the direction of digital asset prices in the coming weeks.

For the Deribit exchange, a leading crypto derivatives platform, the event trims 37% of its total Bitcoin open interest, currently worth about $43.5 billion. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers said the September quarterly expiration is among the largest of the year on his exchange. "The September contracts remain dominated by calls, with a put/call ratio of 0.69 — positions built to expect higher prices," he told CoinDesk.

The dominance of calls shows that most traders are betting on a Bitcoin price increase. A put/call ratio of 0.69 means the number of call contracts far exceeds puts. This reflects strong bullish sentiment, even though the options market is often a battleground between expectations and reality. As much as 55% of the $9.4 billion in call bets will expire in the money, meaning those positions are already profitable because the current spot price is above the strike price. Meanwhile, put options are largely worthless.

Max pain, the price level at which option buyers collectively suffer the largest losses, sits at $75,000. The theory holds that option sellers have an incentive to push the spot price toward that level to maximize buyers' losses. Though widely debated, Deribit calls this level a "soft magnet" for prices ahead of expiration. Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot added that the open interest distribution points to a price floor around $75,000. "Open interest is concentrated at the $85,000, $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 call strikes, reflecting the influence of a large call condor block that is now in play as spot approaches $86,000," he explained. "On the put side, defensive structures are anchored at $60,000, $70,000, and $75,000, creating a layered support floor."

Bitcoin's recent price move, which broke through the $80,000–$87,000 area, was also driven by dealer hedging activity. Dealers holding short call positions must buy Bitcoin in the spot market as prices rise to manage their exposure, reinforcing the rally's momentum. However, after settlement, these gamma and hedging flows will evaporate. Strijers warned that the price-pinning effect will fade, short-term volatility could rise, and the current trading range may be reset.

"Once the gamma and hedging flows roll off after settlement, the pinning effect fades, short-term volatility can rise, and the prevailing range may be reset." — Luuk Strijers, CEO of Deribit

For traders in Indonesia, this event offers a valuable lesson about the dynamics of the crypto derivatives market, which is increasingly integrated with global markets. Although Bappebti has not yet allowed direct crypto options trading, Bitcoin price moves on international exchanges still affect liquidity and sentiment on local platforms. Post-expiration volatility can be both an opportunity and a risk for retail investors who actively trade crypto assets. In addition, the dominance of call options shows that many market participants remain optimistic about Bitcoin's medium-term prospects, even as the shadow of a correction lingers.

Looking ahead, attention will turn to how these positions are rolled over into October and December contracts. Rollover means traders close current positions and open similar ones with a further expiration date. Strijers said the $85,000 level will be an important point to watch. If the price holds above that level, bullish expectations can continue. Conversely, a failure to hold it could trigger selling and retest support at $75,000. With large liquidity and sentiment still leaning upward, the crypto market is entering a phase of direction-finding that will set the trend through the end of the year.