Coinbase Faces Q3 Test: Trading Volume Rises, but Wall Street Is Split on Revenue
Baca dalam 60 detik
- Coinbase akan melaporkan kinerja kuartal III 2026 setelah pasar tutup, dengan fokus pada seberapa besar kenaikan volume perdagangan September mampu mendongkrak pendapatan.
- Penurunan 55% pendapatan kripto Robinhood menjadi sinyal peringatan bahwa pemulihan volume tidak otomatis berarti kenaikan pendapatan karena tekanan pada harga jasa (fee).
- Proyeksi analis untuk pendapatan transaksi Coinbase bervariasi antara US$578 juta hingga US$694 juta, sementara pendapatan total diperkirakan US$1,2–1,4 miliar.
Coinbase Global (COIN) is in the spotlight in the US capital markets ahead of its Q3 2026 earnings release on Thursday (29/10) local time, or early Friday WIB. Expectations of a recovery in the crypto trading business have risen after transaction activity hit a multi-year low in June before picking up again in September as digital asset prices climbed. However, the road to revenue recovery is not as smooth as imagined.
Market doubts stem from the performance of Robinhood Markets (HOOD), which reported its quarterly results earlier. Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue plunged 55% due to a 38% drop in crypto trading volume. By contrast, revenue from options and equities trading rose, while the prediction market business line contributed US$173 million, or more than six times the figure in the same period last year. This sharp divergence is a mirror for Coinbase, which still relies on customer crypto buying and selling for most of its revenue.
Unlike conventional stockbrokers that have revenue buffers from interest, investment products, and other services, Coinbase remains vulnerable to crypto price swings. When prices fall, trading volume shrinks, and transaction-fee-based revenue erodes. The situation is compounded by pressure on fee pricing, which means each dollar of trading volume does not automatically translate into a proportional revenue increase.
Wall Street agrees that Coinbase's trading business improved compared with Q2, but it is not unanimous on how much of that improvement turns into revenue. JPMorgan, which rates the stock overweight, is the most optimistic with a volume projection of US$173 billion. Barclays forecasts US$147 billion, while Oppenheimer expects US$141 billion. As a result, transaction revenue estimates range from US$578 million to US$694 million, with total revenue projected at US$1.2–1.4 billion. For adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), JPMorgan estimates US$323 million, Barclays US$360 million, and Oppenheimer US$262 million.
Nevertheless, analysts warn that the September volume increase began to lose momentum in early October. Barclays noted the slowdown, while Oppenheimer cut its trading volume projection by up to 20% due to weaker market activity. This raises the question of whether the recovery is structural or merely a temporary bounce.
Amid that pressure, the stablecoin business is an oasis for Coinbase. The exchange earns a share of the revenue generated from the reserves backing USDC, a token issued by Circle Internet (CRCL). JPMorgan estimates Coinbase's stablecoin revenue will reach US$320 million this quarter, an income source that does not depend on customer trading activity. However, risks remain: interest rate cuts could pressure USDC reserve yields, while competition could erode Coinbase's revenue share from this business line.
Analysts are also watching Coinbase's efforts to expand beyond spot trading through derivatives, payments, and tokenized assets. The acquisition of Deribit, the largest crypto derivatives exchange, strengthens Coinbase's position in the crypto options market. However, recent trading trends remain mixed. Barclays reported that Coinbase International futures volume fell 12% from Q2, while combined Deribit options and futures volume rose only 2%. The figures show that business diversification has not fully offset spot market fluctuations.
"We've tracked every broker and exchange that has reported Q3, and the most obvious weakness is in pricing," said Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets at VanEck, in a post on X, as quoted by CoinDesk.
Sigel said Robinhood shows weak pricing power across the board—options, equities, and crypto. Companies are struggling to convert trading activity into revenue amid fee pressure. For Coinbase, this is crucial because retail customers have historically generated higher revenue per dollar traded than institutional clients. If retail purchasing power weakens, the impact will be felt more deeply.
In the long term, analysts are most divided. JPMorgan sees opportunities in tokenization, payments, and Coinbase's Base blockchain. Barclays remains skeptical that these new businesses can offset reliance on retail trading and USDC revenue. This debate will determine the direction of COIN shares in the coming quarters. The question is whether Coinbase can prove that the volume recovery is not merely a seasonal illusion but the foundation for sustainable revenue growth.
