Coca-Cola Raises Profit Outlook, but North American Market Slumps

Coca-Cola has once again surprised the market by raising its full-year performance outlook for the third time in a row, even as demand in the United States domestic market shows signs of weakening. The soft-drink giant now expects comparable 2026 earnings per share (EPS) to grow at least 11%, up from 9-10% previously, while organic revenue is expected to rise at least 5% from an initial projection of around 5%.

The move came after Coca-Cola posted third-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations. Net income attributable to shareholders reached US$4.01 billion, or 93 cents per share, up from US$3.7 billion (86 cents per share) in the same period last year. After excluding transaction gains and other items, earnings per share came in at 91 cents, above the LSEG analyst consensus of 88 cents. Net revenue rose 7% to US$13.4 billion, also exceeding the US$12.92 billion estimate.

Even so, global unit case volume grew only 5%, with the North American market reported as flat. This extends a trend seen over the past few quarters: US consumers are increasingly squeezed by inflation and economic uncertainty. However, Coca-Cola stressed that people are still buying their drinks, including premium brands such as Fairlife and its flagship sodas.

Globally, Coca-Cola's sparkling soft drinks segment posted a 5% volume increase, supported by growth in Coke, Coke Zero Sugar, and Diet Coke. The water, sports, coffee, and tea division also recorded a 5% volume increase, thanks to demand for the premium water brand Smartwater. Meanwhile, tea and coffee demand was flat, and sports drinks declined. The juice, value-added dairy, and plant-based beverage businesses reported flat volume, although brands such as Fairlife and Minute Maid grew.

"Consumers in North America are still under pressure, but they keep buying our products," a Coca-Cola executive said in the quarterly report, as quoted by CNBC.

For Indonesia, this dynamic is worth watching. Coca-Cola has large operations in the country through Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Indonesia and local producers. Weakening purchasing power in the US could push the company to shift its growth focus to emerging markets, including Indonesia, which has a large population and a growing middle class. However, global inflation pressures could also affect raw material prices and domestic purchasing power. Investors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange with exposure to consumer goods issuers should pay close attention to the direction of Coca-Cola's strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.

Looking ahead, Coca-Cola's main challenge is to maintain growth momentum amid weakening demand in mature markets. The question is whether this outlook upgrade will be followed by concrete expansion into emerging markets, or whether it is instead a signal that the company is preparing for a deeper global slowdown.