US PPI Jumps 1.3%, Signaling Fed May Raise Interest Rates Again
Baca dalam 60 detik
- Indeks harga produsen AS September 2026 melesat 1,3% bulanan, tertinggi sejak Maret 2022 dan dua kali lipat prediksi pasar.
- Estimasi core PCE—indikator inflasi favorit The Fed—diperkirakan naik 0,32%, memicu spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga tambahan.
- Peluang hike bulan ini hanya 29%, tetapi probabilitas hingga Desember mencapai 91%, menandakan tekanan inflasi yang masih kuat.
Wall Street is raising its bets that the Federal Reserve is not done raising interest rates. US producer price index (PPI) data for September 2026, released Thursday (15/10), recorded a monthly jump of 1.3%—the largest increase since March 2022 and more than double the analyst consensus of 0.6%. The figure immediately triggered revisions to inflation projections and speculation that the central bank will tighten monetary policy again in the near term.
On an annual basis, PPI surged 6.3%, the highest level since December 2022. The increase was driven by gasoline prices soaring 20%, but inflationary pressure was not limited to energy. After stripping out food, energy, and trade services, core producer prices still rose 0.5%—indicating that inflation is spreading to a broader set of sectors. The data dealt a heavy blow to the narrative that price pressures would soon ease.
Bond and futures markets reacted immediately. According to CME FedWatch data, the chance of a rate hike at the Fed's late-October meeting is only 29%, but the probability of at least one increase through December has surged to 91%. Seven research houses surveyed by CNBC estimate that core PCE—the inflation indicator the Fed watches most closely—will rise 0.32% in September, higher than 0.25% in August. The estimates range from 0.35% (Barclays) to 0.29% (Oxford Economics).
Mizuho Securities senior economist Alex Pelle argues that recent economic data gives the Fed no reason to hesitate about raising rates further. "The inflation picture is not benign, it remains high and is even intensifying," he wrote in a research note. Similarly, Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic warned of a real risk that the Fed will raise rates again in the next two weeks, even though some Fed officials had earlier dampened expectations of consecutive hikes.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh previously said that one benchmark for holding rates steady is confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target within a reasonable timeframe. However, both headline inflation and core PCE have been above target since 2021, and have in fact kept creeping higher since tariffs were imposed in April 2025. The prolonged Iran war has also accelerated price increases, mainly through surging energy prices.
For Indonesia, this development is not merely global economic news. A Fed rate hike could strengthen the US dollar and pressure the rupiah exchange rate, which in turn could trigger capital outflows from domestic financial markets. Bank Indonesia may need to raise its benchmark interest rate to maintain external stability, although that risks weighing on credit growth and household consumption. The government also faces a fiscal dilemma: on one hand it needs to protect people's purchasing power, on the other it must anticipate higher import costs for raw materials and energy due to the weakening rupiah.
Going forward, market attention will focus on the release of core PCE data at the end of this month. If the figure meets or exceeds estimates, pressure on the Fed to raise rates will grow. Conversely, if there are signs of cooling, the central bank may delay tightening. However, with inflation still far above target and the labor market relatively tight, the scenario of an additional rate hike appears increasingly difficult to avoid. Will the Fed choose to hold back for the sake of global stability, or raise rates again to control domestic inflation?
