Kalshi Denies Being Investigated by CFTC: Odd Trading Patterns Are Normal
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- Kalshi menegaskan belum menerima kontak resmi dari CFTC dan menampik kabar penyelidikan formal atas aktivitas perdagangan di pasar prediksinya.
- Pola transaksi berukuran identik yang mencuat di pasar perpetual kripto disebut berasal dari program insentif likuiditas, bukan praktik curang.
- Pengawasan terhadap pasar prediksi diprediksi menguat seiring pertumbuhan volume, memunculkan pertanyaan tentang standar transparansi global termasuk di Indonesia.
Prediction market platform Kalshi denied a report that it is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over unusual trading patterns in crypto perpetual markets. A Kalshi spokesperson, Elisabeth Diana, stressed that the company had not been contacted by the regulator and did not believe there was a formal examination. "We have not been contacted by the CFTC and do not believe there is a formal examination," she said in an official statement, adding that the data patterns in question are commonplace in liquidity incentive programs in financial markets.
The statement responded to reports by CoinDesk and The Wall Street Journal that revealed the majority of trading volume in Kalshi's bitcoin and ether perpetual markets consisted of identically sized transactions. Most ether transactions were concentrated at around US$5,500, while bitcoin was dominated by values of US$2,500 to US$5,000. The WSJ even said the CFTC was reviewing the data before deciding whether to open an enforcement investigation.
The data first drew the attention of Beni, a co-founder of research firm Stealth Neolab. He found that the 24-hour volume of Kalshi's ether perpetual market reached around US$539 million, but open interest was only US$3.1 million. Furthermore, transactions of exactly US$5,500 accounted for 48% to 58% of notional volume on four days in September. Beni claimed the figures came from Kalshi's public API.
Diana explained that the pattern can be explained by Kalshi's liquidity incentive program, which rewards participants who provide liquidity. "We send data to them [the CFTC] every day, and it is not strange if they routinely review our data," she said in an interview. She also dismissed speculation on social media. "Don't believe everything you read on X. Much of the discourse is rumor spread by competitors," she said. The CFTC had not responded to a request for comment by the time this news was published.
The issue emerged as prediction markets grow rapidly, drawing attention to how platforms report volume and monitor activity among participants. Liquidity incentive programs generally reward participants who place orders, helping create a market where other customers can trade. However, practices such as wash trading—transactions that create the illusion of market activity without changing real economic exposure—are a concern for regulators. Diana assured that Kalshi has "many tools" and a "full surveillance team" to prevent it.
For Indonesia, this development is a signal that oversight of prediction markets and crypto assets will become stricter. The Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Bappebti are drafting a regulatory framework for digital assets, including the potential entry of crypto-based derivative instruments. If similar trading patterns emerge on domestic platforms, regulators will be required to have real-time data audit capabilities and transparent volume reporting standards. Domestic market players also need to be mindful of reputational and compliance risks if they plan to adopt aggressive liquidity incentive models.
Going forward, the big question is not only whether the CFTC will open a formal investigation, but how global prediction markets prove that the volume they report reflects real economic activity, not merely an illusion of liquidity. Without agreed transparency standards, investor trust—including in Southeast Asia—could be at stake.
