Trump Cornered: Authority Wanes, Republicans Begin to Pull Away

United States President Donald Trump is back in the spotlight after a series of political defeats over the past month. Speaking at the UN Headquarters in New York, he threatened to "destroy" Iran, yet at the same time his domestic influence is shrinking. Recent surveys show public approval of his performance has fallen sharply, while a number of Republican Party members are beginning to distance themselves ahead of the midterm elections in November.

This setback is visible in several decisions by high state institutions that run counter to the president's wishes. The Supreme Court blocked efforts to restrict mail-in ballots, while a federal court struck down a ban on three media outlets—CNN, MS Now, and Politico—from covering the White House grounds. A judge also prevented Trump's name from being added to the Kennedy Center, which had briefly triggered threats to demolish the national arts building. On another front, The Federal Reserve rejected the president's pressure regarding interest rates.

More worrying for Trump, his own party is beginning to show cracks. In Florida, gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds removed almost all references to Trump from his campaign website. Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar even launched an ad stating that federal immigration enforcement has gone "too far" and that Latino voters "feel betrayed". This shift in attitude is driven by fears that closeness to Trump will hurt seat gains in the midterm elections.

Rick Wilson, a veteran Republican strategist, sees the situation as the beginning of a decline. "This is the beginning of the end. This is the decline. However strong and brave he may be, this country has no positive prospects at present," he said. Wilson likened members of his party in Congress to a herd of gazelles that has caught the scent of a predator but does not yet know what to do. "They haven't realized that the predator has been with them all along. The risk factor they face now is Trump," he added.

Facing this pressure, Trump has returned to his old tactics: creating spectacle, stoking culture wars, and attacking the press. The ban on three media outlets from the White House is seen by critics not as a demonstration of strength, but as a symptom of frustration. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle denied this and insisted that the president's agenda is succeeding, citing the largest tax cuts, lower drug prices, and the creation of more than one million private-sector jobs.

However, the political trend is expected to become increasingly difficult. If Democrats take control of the House next year, they plan to launch investigations into alleged abuse of office to enrich the family, benefit supporters, and hollow out federal agencies. In addition, public attention will shift to the 2028 presidential election and the leadership succession. Bill Galston of the Brookings Institution said, "Nothing will make him crazier than the spotlight shifting away from him. The prospect of handing over the torch, of letting go of the spotlight, is very painful for him. That is his oxygen."

This phenomenon is not new in US history. Allan Lichtman, author of the book Great American Presidents, calls it the "second-term curse". He argues that Trump is driven by money and glory, and that his inability to stay away from the center of attention could be dangerous. "Never underestimate the power of the president. Just because Republicans criticize him and his poll numbers are low does not mean he does not have great power—and he is very willing to use it without limits," Lichtman stressed.

Charlie Sykes, a conservative writer, warned that Trump fears irrelevance and will fight with all his might. "We are heading toward a collision between a lame duck who does not respect constitutional norms and an opposition that may have the power to hold him accountable. Paradoxically, the weaker he gets, the more dangerous he becomes," he said.

For Indonesia, this US political dynamic deserves close attention. Uncertainty in US foreign policy—especially regarding Iran and the trade war—could affect the stability of energy prices and global financial markets. As an oil importer, Indonesia will feel the direct impact of an oil price spike if tensions with Iran escalate. In addition, the weakening of Trump's authority could reduce the effectiveness of US diplomacy in the region, opening space for China to expand its influence. Investors in Indonesian capital markets need to be wary of the volatility caused by US political uncertainty, especially ahead of the midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election.

With two years remaining, Trump is expected to rely increasingly on executive power, a politicized justice department, and broad pardons. But the question is: will these maneuvers restore his influence, or instead accelerate his political collapse?