SNB Holds Interest Rate at 0%, Market Awaits First Hike Since 2022
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- Bank Sentral Swiss mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level 0% pada Kamis, berbeda dengan ECB, The Fed, dan BoJ yang mulai mengetatkan kebijakan.
- Pelaku pasar memperkirakan peluang kenaikan pada Desember hampir seimbang, dengan probabilitas lebih dari 90% untuk kenaikan pada awal 2027.
- Pelemahan franc dalam beberapa bulan terakhir dapat mempercepat langkah hawkish SNB, sementara inflasi Agustus 0,8% masih dalam target 0–2%.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to keep its policy rate at 0% on Thursday (24/9), making it the only major central bank that has not raised rates amid the global tightening wave. The decision came as Switzerland's annual inflation in August stood at 0.8%, still within the central bank's target range of 0% to 2%.
The SNB's move contrasts with those of its main trading partners' central banks. The European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have raised interest rates to curb inflation. The Bank of Canada and the Bank of England are expected to follow in the coming months. But the divergence is not without reason: Switzerland's unique economy makes it relatively shielded from the price surges hitting its neighbors.
Even so, the market believes an SNB rate hike is only a matter of time. LSEG data shows market participants see the odds of a hike in December as nearly even (50:50), and more than 90% probability that the SNB will start raising rates in early 2027. In fact, the market is betting the SNB policy rate will reach at least 0.75% by September next year.
The main factor holding back Swiss inflation is the franc's status as a safe-haven currency. When the franc strengthens, imported goods become cheaper, weighing on domestic prices. In 2025, the franc gained more than 12% against the US dollar as investors sought shelter from market volatility. This year, however, the US dollar has rebounded about 4% against the franc, fueling concerns that inflation could rise faster than expected.
"The franc's depreciation of more than 2% against the euro and more than 1% against the US dollar since the SNB's June meeting could heighten concerns that inflation will run faster than previously expected," UBS economists wrote in a note earlier this month. "Although we believe inflation will not exceed 2% over the next 12–18 months, the SNB has a history of surprising the market."
Gedeon Tumong, head of finance specialization at HIM Business School Switzerland, calls the phenomenon a "safe-haven dividend". According to him, Switzerland imports credibility just as it imports goods. "Foreign capital inflows support the franc, a strong franc suppresses import inflation, and low inflation gives the central bank ample reason to keep rates lower than the Fed, BoE, or ECB," he told CNBC.
In addition, Switzerland's energy mix, dominated by hydropower and nuclear, leaves the country less exposed to regional energy price shocks. Tumong added that a strict fiscal debt brake—requiring a balanced budget—means Switzerland does not need to offer high yields to attract bond investors, which also helps hold down interest rates.
Antonio Fatás, an economics professor at INSEAD and an external consultant to the IMF, argues that Switzerland's history of low inflation has shaped low inflation expectations as well. "When shocks occur, a central bank that can rely on low inflation expectations will find it easier to control inflation," he said. However, he noted that in terms of real interest rates, Switzerland is not far off from other countries. "A 0% rate with 0.8% inflation means a real rate of -0.8%. In the euro area, a 2.5% rate with 3.2% inflation means a real rate of -0.7%, very similar," he explained.
For Indonesia, the SNB's policy dynamics have indirect implications. A strong franc and low interest rates make Switzerland an attractive investment destination, but they can also influence global capital flows. If the SNB raises rates faster than expected, the US dollar could strengthen, which in turn could weigh on the rupiah exchange rate. Bank Indonesia needs to monitor these developments, especially given the country's reliance on energy and raw material imports. In addition, Indonesian investors with exposure to franc assets or Swiss bonds need to anticipate changes in the global interest rate landscape.
Looking ahead, the question is how long the SNB can maintain its dovish stance. With the franc starting to weaken and inflationary pressure possibly resurfacing, the market will watch every signal from the SNB. If a rate hike comes earlier than December, Switzerland's era of zero interest rates will end, marking a new chapter in global monetary policy.
