Trump Seen as a Liability, Republicans Anxious Ahead of 2026 Midterms
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- Partai Republik menghadapi risiko kehilangan mayoritas di Kongres pada pemilu tengah masa November 2026 akibat perang Iran, inflasi, dan rendahnya popularitas Trump.
- Ketidakpuasan pemilih meluas ke negara bagian merah, memaksa sejumlah kandidat Republik menjauh dari kebijakan perang dan mendorong munculnya kembali narasi 'gelombang biru'.
- Partai Republik masih unggul dalam pendanaan kampanye, tetapi sebagian besar dana mengalir ke daerah pemilihan yang dimenangkan Trump pada 2024, menandakan strategi bertahan.
The Republican Party is facing mounting political pressure ahead of the United States midterm elections on 3 November 2026, with a number of party leaders beginning to acknowledge that the war with Iran, rising energy prices, and President Donald Trump's low approval ratings could topple their majority in Congress.
The concern surfaced after the party's national convention two weeks ago, which was seen as a last-ditch effort to hold on to seats. In his speech, Trump promised $5,000 cash assistance and warned that the United States would turn into a "communist country" if Democrats won. But as ballots began to be mailed in several states, there was no indication that the strategy was working.
National polls continue to show Democrats leading in the congressional elections, including in states Trump won two years ago such as North Carolina and Georgia. Ratings agencies have also shifted the status of several key districts toward Democrats, even as Republican-controlled states aggressively redraw district boundaries to benefit the party.
Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace openly described this election as a "bloodbath" and predicted her party would lose control of the House and Senate. The statement came after three Republicans backed a war resolution introduced by Democrats to end the conflict with Iran, a defection that marked growing internal unease.
A number of Republican candidates in competitive districts are beginning to distance themselves from the war policy. Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers called for the war to be ended as soon as possible. Iowa Congresswoman Ashley Hinson also demanded an end to the conflict, even though she had previously rejected a similar resolution. A similar pattern was seen in Michigan gubernatorial candidate John James, who insisted the war must be stopped immediately.
"Republicans should brace themselves: the three worst possibilities are a bad result, a very bad result, or a truly terrible one," wrote veteran political analyst Charlie Cook.
Even so, not all indicators favor Democrats. Republicans still hold an advantage in campaign funding and have a chance of winning a Senate seat in New Hampshire, now considered a tight race. They also benefit from favorable redistricting results, and claim to have stronger candidates and a more sensible agenda.
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella stated that Democrats are instead weighed down by unpopular left-wing candidates and policies the public rejects. However, the party's funding strategy shows signs of playing defense: most of the money is flowing to districts Trump won, not to new territory it wants to capture.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee executive director Julie Merz acknowledged the funding difficulties her party faces, but remained optimistic. "We are confident we will win the majority, and that is why Republicans in red areas are starting to get scared," she said. She added that additional funds are essential to break gerrymandering and expand victories.
Analyst John T. Woolley of the University of California, Santa Barbara, assessed that the factors determining the election outcome are largely locked in, except for the president's approval rating. "Inflation and employment will not change much. The seats are also already fixed. All that remains is presidential approval," he said. According to him, Trump must be able to move independent voters and swing voters, a group that is now increasingly drifting away from the Republican Party.
For Indonesia, this dynamic in United States politics has direct implications. Uncertainty over US foreign policy, especially regarding the war with Iran and global energy price stability, could affect domestic financial markets and commodity prices. Investors and businesses need to watch the direction of Washington's post-election policy, including the possibility of a change in approach to the Indo-Pacific region. Meanwhile, trade and investment ties between Indonesia and the US could be affected if a power shift in Congress stalls the Trump administration's legislative agenda.
With ballots beginning to be distributed, the battle toward November will be a test for Trump's coalition. Will Republicans be able to turn things around, or will a blue wave sweep away seats in red states? The answer will soon become clear within weeks.
