Xi Says Thucydides Trap Can Be Overcome, a New Signal in US-China Rivalry

Chinese President Xi Jinping explicitly stated that the Thucydides Trap—a concept describing the risk of war between a rising power and a dominant power—can be overcome. Xi made the statement upon arriving at the White House to meet US President Donald Trump on Thursday (26/9/2026), according to an official release from the Chinese government.

Xi's remark differed from his stance at the May summit, when he still questioned whether the two countries could avoid that historical trap. The shift in tone signals that Beijing wants to frame competition without confrontation as the basis of the bilateral relationship going forward.

The term Thucydides Trap was popularized by Harvard University professor Graham Allison in the early 2010s. The concept refers to the historical account by Thucydides, an Athenian general, of the Peloponnesian War: Athens' rapid rise made Sparta feel threatened, and war between the two city-states became inevitable. Allison, a former US Assistant Secretary of Defense under Clinton and a special adviser to the Secretary of Defense under Reagan, has met Xi several times and visited China, most recently in June 2026 for the World Economic Forum event.

On his first state visit to the US in 11 years, Xi stressed the importance of peaceful coexistence. He said the US and China could have healthy competition without confrontation. "This should be a race to outdo each other, not wrestling where one side wins and the other loses," Xi said, adding that the two countries' militaries need to improve crisis communication and prevention.

Xi's statement on the floor of the relationship—fierce competition without military conflict—is seen as the most important political outcome of the summit. Cui Shoujun, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, said it "injects certainty into a volatile bilateral relationship." According to him, setting such a floor provides a clearer framework for both countries to manage competition.

Nevertheless, the Taiwan issue remains a flashpoint. Xi reportedly asked the US to "oppose Taiwan independence" in the talks. However, as of this news being published, Trump has not given a specific comment on Taiwan. His silence could be read as an effort to avoid escalation, but it also leaves uncertainty for US allies in the region.

For Indonesia, the US-China dynamic has direct implications. As a major trading partner of both countries, Indonesia has an interest in maintaining regional stability so that investment and trade flows are not disrupted. Easing tensions could open space for resolving the South China Sea dispute through diplomatic channels, and accelerate negotiations on the Code of Conduct (COC) that have long been stalled. Conversely, if competition heats up again, Indonesia risks being caught in pressure to choose sides.

Regional financial markets will also be watching these developments. Any signal of improved US-China relations usually drives Asian currencies higher, including the rupiah, and boosts investors' risk appetite. Conversely, rising tensions can trigger capital outflows from developing countries.

Going forward, will this commitment to "competition without confrontation" hold up against real tests, such as technology disputes or military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait? The answer will determine the direction of economic and security stability in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, in the years ahead.