US Bonds Set 2004 Record, Signal Fed to Raise Rates Again
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- Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah AS tenor 30 tahun menembus 5,438%, level tertinggi sejak 2004, dipicu ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga The Fed.
- Data PMI jasa dan manufaktur AS yang melesat serta harga minyak di atas USD 100 per barel memperkuat spekulasi pengetatan moneter lebih agresif.
- Bagi Indonesia, lonjakan yield AS berpotensi menekan rupiah dan memicu arus modal keluar, sehingga Bank Indonesia menghadapi ujian menjaga stabilitas.
The yield on 30-year US government bonds jumped to 5.438% on Thursday (24/9/2026), the highest level since 2004, after market participants grew increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again soon. The surge also dragged the 10-year bond yield to 5.139%, the highest since July 2007, and the 2-year yield to 4.897%, a peak since 2023.
The main trigger was the release of the purchasing managers' index (PMI) from S&P Global, which showed the US services sector rising to 58.7 in September—the highest in nearly five years—while manufacturing reached 56.7, a level unseen in more than four years. The data indicates the US economy remains resilient, giving the Fed room to maintain a tight monetary policy.
Expectations of a rate hike also soared. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed raising rates at its October meeting jumped to more than 75%, from around 49% a week earlier. Fed Governor Michael Barr said in a Wednesday speech that "further policy firming" would likely be needed to bring inflation down to target. New York Fed President John Williams, in London on Thursday, said it was "reasonable" to expect another rate hike before the end of the year.
Pressure also came from the surge in crude oil prices. Brent traded up about 2.8% to USD 105.95 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 2.2% to USD 94.40. The energy rally added to inflation concerns, which in turn strengthened the Fed's argument for raising rates.
Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note that the US bond selloff was driven by "a combination of strong PMI and the rebound in oil prices, both of which fueled speculation of faster rate hikes." They added that the PMI results were "consistent with a resilient growth narrative, which allows the Fed to keep raising rates to address inflation."
The phenomenon was not limited to the US. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds also rose 8 basis points to 3.055%, the highest since August 1996. Yields on UK Gilts and German Bunds also climbed, reflecting a global selloff in government bond markets.
Indonesian Context
For Indonesia, the surge in US bond yields is a warning signal. The spread between US bonds and Indonesian government securities (SBN) could narrow, making rupiah-denominated assets less attractive. This could trigger capital outflows from the domestic financial market, pressure the rupiah exchange rate, and ultimately narrow Bank Indonesia's room to cut interest rates to spur growth. Global investors tend to move funds into safer assets (safe havens) such as US bonds when their yields surge.
In addition, the rise in world oil prices above USD 100 per barrel is a double threat for Indonesia, which is still a net oil importer. Energy import costs swell, worsening the trade balance deficit and adding to domestic inflation pressure. The government needs to anticipate the knock-on effects on energy subsidies and the state budget.
Going forward, the market will scrutinize weekly jobless claims data and US new home sales for August released this Thursday to gauge the strength of the world's largest economy. If the data comes in solid again, speculation of a Fed rate hike will strengthen further, and the wave of global bond selling could continue. The question is, how long can Indonesia withstand this external shock without sacrificing monetary and fiscal stability?
